News at Ware & Co | 05/09/2023

  • Mortgage approvals lead trends in residential sales activity by around 3 months. As such, mortgage approvals will be a key leading indicator to monitor for more signs of market activity over coming months.
  • The number of approvals has risen since the beginning of 2023 but remains below usual levels. In the year to end July, approvals averaged 51,600 a month. This is 21% below levels recorded in the 7 years prior to the Covid pandemic.
  • Whilst inflationary pressures certainly persist, recent inflation data has been encouraging. Interest rates are forecast to peak this year and start falling in 2024. Any pick-up in market activity will show first in mortgage approvals.
  • Mortgage approvals were at their lowest in December 2022 and January 2023. In part a seasonal impact but largely a reaction to inflation and interest rate uncertainty.
Source #Dataloft, Bank of England