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Covid-19: Scenario planning – how might transaction volumes pan out in 2020?

Fri 01 May 2020

 

  • This week Zoopla revealed that 373,000 home sales across the country, agreed before lockdown, are currently on hold. We have used this to create a scenario for transaction rates over the rest of 2020.
  • Making assumptions for fall throughs and also the number of newly agreed sales during and after lockdown lifts, we estimate that just under 880,000 homes will sell in 2020, 25% lower than in 2019.
  • Assuming that activity returns to around 40% of usual levels in June and that the backlog begins to clear, August looks set to be the busiest month of the year for agents and those involved in the conveyencing process.
  • As the backlog clears, transaction levels seem likely to dip for a few months in the Autumn before a normal market resumes.

 

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